Spatially and Temporally Evaluating the Skill of Seasonal Forecasting Systems to Aid With On-Farm Decision Making
Tender ID: 396766
Tender Details
Tender Description
Climate-variability has a significant impact on farm-business profitability. While notable improvements have been made in seasonal forecasting with general circulation models (GCMs), growers and producers are frustrated by the inherently variable skill within and between models from one season to the next and in different locations (i.e. different grid cells for which forecasts are issued). A recently completed Rural R&D for profit project on Improving Seasonal Forecasting (RDC00014) completed an assessment of seasonal forecast skill for a small number of GCMs where forecasts were issued at key decision points for aiding with on-farm decision making. The models evaluated showed considerable discrepancies in skill when forecasting rainfall terciles based on a statistical analysis of forecast ‘hit-rate’.
The GRDC and the other participating sectors within the Managing Climate Variability Program (Meat and Livestock Australia, Cotton Research and Development Corporation, Sugar Research Australia and AgriFutures) are seeking to build upon previous and current research assessing the comparative skill of different seasonal forecast systems (i.e. model x grid cell x time of the year the forecast is issued) to aid with on-farm decision making. While it’s important for growers and producers to have access to robust, quantitative assessments of seasonal forecast skill, it’s equally important for that information to be well contextualised and communicated in a manner that accounts for any limitations with research methodologies. To demonstrate the benefits of integrating that information within decision making processes on-farm, a series of case studies identifying the potential economic benefits from integrating seasonal forecasts with crop and/or production system models to guide strategic decision making (e.g. crop choice) is a supplementary focus area within the project.
It’s also envisaged that the knowledge generated in the project may lead to the identification of locations and/or conditions under which different models consistently perform better than others, which could in-turn create a foundation for future targeted R&D based on the comparative strengths and weakness of different seasonal forecasting systems and their relative potential to aid on-farm decision making.
This a co-investment from GRDC and the other sectors participating within the Managing Climate Variability Program. It is anticipated that the successful applicant will be contracted via GRDC’s Standard Two Party Research Agreement.
Applicants should note that the list of seasonal forecast systems provided in output 1 is intended as a guide (i.e. not a definitive or exclusive list) and will likely be subject to negotiation with GRDC and MCV partners.
Investment description
Australian growers and producers lack access to quantitative, contextualised comparisons of seasonal forecast skill for rainfall and temperature for different seasonal forecast systems. This project will develop that knowledge base, extend it to growers and producers, and demonstrate the value of seasonal forecasting for strategic decision making on-farm via simulated case studies linking crop and livestock modelling tools with seasonal forecast information.
Location
New South Wales : Central West : Far North Coast : Far West : Hunter : Illawarra : Mid North Coast : Murray : New England : Orana : Riverina : Southern Highlands : Sydney
Queensland : Cairns & Far North Queensland : Gladstone : Mackay Whitsunday Region : Mount Isa & North West Region : Rockhampton : South East Queensland : South West & Darling Downs : The Central West : Townsville : Wide Bay Burnett
Victoria : Barwon South West : Gippsland : Grampians : Hume : Loddon Mallee : Melbourne
South Australia : Adelaide : Eyre & Western : Far North : Fleurieu & Kangaroo Island : Limestone Coast : Murray & Mallee : York & Mid North
Australian Capital Territory
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