The influence of climate change on bushfire fuels in Victoria

⁠⁠⁠Project aims and scope
Research questions to be addressed:
Where and when can we expect changes in community / species composition due to climate and fire?
How will fuel hazard levels change in the future due to changes in climate?

• Enhanced atmospheric CO2, altered temperatures, changed rainfall patterns and altered seasonality all have the potential to alter plant community composition and distribution. This is expected to have consequential effects on fuel load and hazard, however the nature and magnitude of these effects are unclear.
• Species and communities are expected to undergo range shifts, however it is unclear to what degree and how fragmentation will influence outcomes
• What are climate thresholds that will result in substantial changes to ecosystem composition and patterns of biodiversity?

Outcomes
The project findings and outputs can be used by Victorian land and fire agencies in further research and in Business as usual (BAU) to make longer term strategic decisions around:

• Management of ecosystems and threatened species that are at risk of extinction
• Investments in resources and infrastructure to prepare for changes in fire regimes
• Strategies for effectively managing fire risk including identifying how fuel patterns and opportunities for planned burning may change
• Options for the maintenance of landscape values and ecosystem services resulting from altered vegetation-fire-climate interactions